From Bubble to Depression
Bubbles have been frequent in economic history, and they occur in the laboratories of experimental economics under conditions which — when first studied in the 1980s — were considered so transparent that bubbles would not be observed.
We economists were wrong: Even when traders in an asset market know the value of the asset, bubbles form dependably. Bubbles can arise when some agents buy not on fundamental value, but on price trend or momentum. If momentum traders have more liquidity, they can sustain a bubble longer
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What the G2 must discuss now the G20 is over
Did the meeting of the Group of 20 in London last week put the world economy on the path of sustainable recovery? The answer is no. Such meetings cannot resolve fundamental disagreements over what has gone wrong and how to put it right. As a result, the world is on a path towards an unsustainable recovery, as I argued last week. An unsustainable recovery might be better than none, but it is not good enough.
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Economic Woes to Continue, Bear Market Still Alive: Roubini
There’s still bad news ahead for the US economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
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Banks aren’t reselling many foreclosed homes
A vast «shadow inventory» of foreclosed homes that banks are holding off the market could wreak havoc with the already battered real estate sector, industry observers say
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یک تحلیل بسیار بسیار جالب که ارزش خوندن داره…..همانطور که » بری» در این تحلیل بهش اشاره میکنه من هم احتمال می دهم که این رکود یک رکود » یو شکل» ( U Shape ) خواهد بود نه «وی شکل» (V Shape ) .بهمین خاطر هم الان شروع به سرمایه گذاری هنوز زود بنظر می رسه:
Getting Worse More Slowly
Ever since Ben Bernanke’s 60 Minutes interview where he used the phrase “Green Shoots,” many of the key data releases have been misinterpreted. This has led to a robust debate as to whether the worst is behind us.
In recent weeks, I have keyed in on 4 data points that the mainstream has spun positively, despite the actual data being horrific. These four factors include ISM data, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and Non Farm Payroll.
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